Guiding Principles

 

Guiding Principle 2:

Promote forward-looking, holistic capital planning that anticipates citywide and neighborhood needs of tomorrow

The TYCS accounts for neighborhood and citywide growth trends and neighborhood-based initiatives, including current and projected population, housing, and employment. While each agency has its own capital planning process, we also ensure that we consider the totality of neighborhood needs over time and integrate these needs into our capital planning accordingly. We also consider capital investments in the context of other policy, regulatory, and expense budget measures to improve quality of life across the city.


Planning for change

City agencies consider trends in population, housing needs and job growth when planning for capital investments to address future needs, including at the neighborhood level. The City continues to evaluate the demographic shifts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding these shifting trends, along with climate change, is key to developing near- and long-term capital plans that can meet the needs of each neighborhood and the city as a whole. (For more detail on our planning for climate change, see Investment Priority 5.) By planning with consistent, accurate data, we aim to provide all New Yorkers with the appropriate level of capital investment for their current and future needs.

Planning for changes in population

Agencies use DCP’s projections on population changes to plan capital projects that will meet the evolving needs of communities, both at the neighborhood level and for populations with specific needs.

The most recent long-term projections estimate that New York City’s overall population will increase to roughly nine million by 2030, with significant growth in Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx. Having these projections at the borough and neighborhood level help agencies know where to prioritize their capital investments today. For example, FDNY uses both population projections and housing growth data to determine neighborhood investments for fire safety infrastructure and emergency services. Current population projections for fast-growing neighborhoods can be seen in the call-out box “Population growth and capital investment in neighborhoods.”

Agencies also use more detailed population projections to meet the needs of specific demographic groups. For example, adults ages 65 and over are projected to reach 1.44 million – or 16% – of the City’s population by 2030. In response to these trends, HPD is pursuing a Seniors First strategy as part of the Housing New York 2.0 plan, to finance new senior housing projects, including sites on NYCHA land.

While population projections reflect known development trends and demographic characteristics that remain relatively consistent over time, there are limits on the ability to predict changes caused by other factors, such as changing economic or social conditions. The most recent population projections noted above were created before the COVID-19 pandemic and prior to the Census Bureau’s 2019 population estimates, which show a decline in NYC’s population since 2016 due to factors such as reduced international immigration. As a result, our nearer-term population growth projections are higher than what we would now expect from recent trends. Despite this, we still anticipate long-term growth, especially in the growing neighborhoods indicated above. Additional insights and refreshed projections are expected based on results of the 2020 Census, to be published in late 2021.

Population growth and capital investment in neighborhoods

According to DCP’s latest local population projections, the five neighborhoods with the greatest expected population change from 2020 to 2030 are Long Island City (boxes b and c below), Downtown Brooklyn (box e below), parts of Greenpoint and Williamsburg (box d below), and West Concourse (box a below). Each of these areas are expected to experience a greater than 30% increase in population over the next decade.

The City has major projects planned in anticipation of this growth, such as expanded sewers, new libraries, upgraded transit and streets, and improved open space. A selection of these growth-supporting investments from the City’s latest Capital Commitment Plan is provided for each neighborhood below

Select Capital Investments in Neighborhood Tabulation Areas with Highest Rate of Projected Population Growth, 2020-30
A map of projected population growth in 5 neighborhoods in New York City. The West Concourse neighborhood in the Bronx is projected to have 30% population growth, approximately 12,000 people. ; Queensbridge Ravenswood-Long Island City in Queens is projected to have 41% population growth, approximately 11,000 people, ; Hunters Point-Sunnyside-West Maspeth in Queens is projected to have 55% population growth, approximately 48,000 people; Northside-Southside in Williamsburg, Brooklyn is projected to have 34% population growth, approximately 21,000 people; and Dumbo-Vinegar Hill-Downtown Brooklyn-Boerum Hill in Brooklyn is projected to have 42% population growth, approximately 20,000 people,
Sources: Adjusted 2010 Census; NYMTC 2055 SED Forecasts (Jan 2020)
DCP - Population Division
Planning for changes in housing

Housing growth is an important catalyst for capital projects. As a City, we closely monitor anticipated housing development to ensure our residential capital investments-such as schools, sewers, and parks-have the capacity to accommodate anticipated housing changes at the neighborhood level.

Between 2010 and 2020, New York City has seen a net increase of 206,000 housing units. Net increases in units have been concentrated in both transit accessible neighborhoods and formerly non-residential areas that were rezoned to allow residential construction. In these transit-accessible neighborhoods, we are making targeted improvements to transit stations and area transportation options. In formerly non-residential areas, we are investing in schools, libraries, and open space to address the new needs of a residential population.

Our planned neighborhood-wide rezonings are conducted in coordination with City agencies to ensure anticipated residential housing growth is supported with capital investments. For example, DEP collaborates with DCP to evaluate and propose potential sewer capacity improvements in areas where significant housing growth is anticipated, including areas being rezoned to allow more housing. For a more detailed example of this interagency work, see the call-out box on the Bay Street Corridor Neighborhood Plan.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated temporary construction pause resulted in a short-term slowdown in housing production. In 2020, housing completions were down 19% and construction permits were down 28% compared to 2019. Still, the high number of active permits for new buildings is enough to support our planning for high levels of continued housing production over the next 10 years, even before considering additional new permits that will be issued.

Housing Database

An important public resource for understanding recent and near-term housing changes is the DCP’s Housing Database. The database captures DOB information on all permitted new buildings, demolitions, and alterations containing housing units since 2010. City agencies use this data to approximate the magnitude and location of changes in the housing pipeline, helping them plan for future, not just current, demand. The Housing Database is updated twice per year.

DCP produces an accompanying Housing Production Snapshot with summary analyses revealing trends in the City’s housing production. A recent analysis showed over 83,000 new units in the housing pipeline (active permits for new buildings) with the largest share of new units expected in Brooklyn and Queens.

Net Permitted Housing Units by Neighborhood Tabulation Area
A map of net permitted housing units in each neighborhood tabulation area (NTA) across New York City, ranging from over 3500 units to less than zero per NTA. Areas with the most housing units growth are in Long Island City, southern Bronx, and central and northern Brooklyn. Areas with less than 100 permitted housing units are the Upper East Side, West Village, norther Bronx, eastern Queens, eastern and southern Brooklyn and mid-Statement Island.
Sources: DCP Housing Database v2020Q4, Unit Change Summary Files
Net permitted units is the number of incomplete class A housing units where the job status is permit issued. Includes new buildings, major alterations, and demolitions. Excludes inactive jobs.
*Area with "N/A" values include parks, cemeteries, and other non-residential areas.
Planning for changes in job trends

We use data on employment trends to plan for capital investments that will support and grow jobs. The City invests in areas where job growth is expected, providing supporting capital investments like nearby affordable housing and commercial campuses for small businesses. We also build infrastructure like transportation and street improvements that can unlock potential job growth.

At its pre-pandemic peak, New York City was home to 4.3 million jobs. Between 2010 and 2019, New York City saw an increase of nearly 902,000 jobs. This job growth has been broadly distributed throughout the boroughs and has increased most rapidly in areas outside of Manhattan.

Our investments in response to this growth have also been geographically broad. We are improving access to jobs through improved transportation connections, such as buses and ferries, opening workforce centers across the five boroughs and virtually, and making investments in commercial hubs.

Over the past year, the city has seen a dramatic shift in employment and the nature of work due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Jobs in many industries that rely on travel and in-person interaction have been significantly impacted, including recreation and tourism, arts and entertainment, and food and beverage. Meanwhile, many workers began telecommuting due to work-from-home policies, causing a significant decline in daytime population in central business districts (CBDs). The long-term impacts of the pandemic on job growth and location are still emerging, and as a City we expect to continue refining our investment strategies as these changes become clearer.

For more detail on how our capital work is catalyzing economic recovery, see Investment Priority 3.

Planning for climate change

Climate change impacts our communities and the City assets and infrastructure that serve them. City agencies are investing to protect our city from existing and future climate hazards, while minimizing the City’s contributions to global warming. Through the capital planning process, we will seek to prioritize cost-effective investments that address and mitigate these ongoing risks, while recognizing that there are limits on the extent to which capital projects can feasibly reduce climate risks.

The City continues to design capital projects to standards that minimize our greenhouse gas emissions and maximize the resiliency, redundancy, and capacity of City infrastructure to respond quickly after storms and heat waves. We are committed to respond to our changing climate through major energy efficiency improvements to government facilities, new coastal protections, tree-planting and cooling strategies to mitigate urban heat islands, and green infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of heavy rainfall.

See Investment Priority 5 for detail on our resiliency investments.


Coordinating integrated capital investments for neighborhoods

We address neighborhood capital needs holistically through interagency collaboration. City agencies regularly undertake neighborhood-based planning to support growth, drive equity and economic development, facilitate accessibility, protect health and safety, and make other quality of life improvements. By working together, agencies can improve capital project prioritization and sequencing, and implement a more collaborative approach to community engagement.

For example, the City is taking a coordinated approach to redeveloping the old Naval Homeport on the North Shore of Staten Island. The EDC-led initiative is focused on providing transit-adjacent, public waterfront open space, improved bicycle and pedestrian facilities, and a new public school. Many capital agencies, including DEP, HPD, DPR, DOT, and SCA, are coordinating to ensure a holistic approach to the 36-acre site that will connect with and complement the surrounding neighborhood.

Community-driven capital investments – Bay Street Corridor Neighborhood Plan

In creating the Bay Street Corridor Neighborhood Plan DCP led a pan-agency planning effort to increase affordable housing in this community and ensure City infrastructure could accommodate associated population growth. This multi-year effort, similar to other integrated neighborhood plans under the de Blasio Administration, was anchored by substantial community engagement that solicited input on City services and capital investment needs that would accompany a rezoning to allow for increased housing.

The approved Bay Street plan is expected to result in 2,650 housing units overall, of which at least 1,300 are classified as affordable. Informed by extensive community feedback, capital commitments in this area include a new school, reconstruction and enhancement of the Cromwell Recreation Center, open space expansion along the waterfront, and streetscape and safety improvements along multiple intersections. DEP will also undertake work to replace aging sewer infrastructure.

Funding for all related investments was set aside at the time of the plan in significant part due to the City’s $1 billion Neighborhood Development Fund. To learn more about the Fund, see call-out box on Investments in Neighborhood Rezoning Areas.

Planned Capital Projects
Bay Street Corridor Neighborhood Plan, 2019
A map of the Bay Street Corridor neighborhood plan in Staten Island showing development sites and capital investment in the area. Parks and Open Space projects, such as Cromwell Recreation Center, are shown in green . Public realm and transportation projects, such as streetscape improvements along bay street, are shown in blue. Waterfront projects, such as Stapleton Waterfront open space and infrastructure project, are shown in orange. Finally, areawide investments, such as new school seats in the North Shore, updated sewers, and NYCHA investments are shown in grey.